European GDP will not return to the level it was in 2019 despite the autumn of 2022, estimated the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB) Philip Lane, adding that the situation will not improve in the coming weeks.
“What we will be watching closely is the circulation of the virus, which inevitably affects consumer behavior, rather than restrictive measures . The question is how long the pandemic of the new coronavirus will last,” the Irish economist said in an interview in the newspaper Les Echos.
“What seems certain, on the contrary, is that in the last weeks of 2020 we will not see any improvement,” he added. For Lane, “as long as the vaccine is not distributed en masse, we will remain in a period of uncertainty. The vaccine will above all affect the outlook for the end of next year and 2022, not the next six months.”
According to Lane, “(European) GDP will not return to 2019 levels before the autumn of 2022. There will be long-term consequences, for example on confidence and savings, on returning to work. Despite vaccines, there will be damage. “The European economy will emerge from this crisis weakened for a long time.”